The concept that high technology inventions in computers and machinery create more higher level type jobs has been a working assumption for a long time. For the most part, it has been true. But recently, empirical evidence is showing that high technology (in the form of computers applied in various contexts) are actually eliminating many good middle class jobs at an increasing rate, and that the jobs being eliminated are moving up the hierarchical ladder into fairly sophisticated functions that (used to?) require advanced college degrees.
This article from Paul Krugman highlights the trend very well.
Degrees and Dollars
Here is another article that gives specific examples of how lawyers are being replaced by software.
Lawyers replaced by software
This trend is also mentioned by Robert Reich, as he develops his idea about "income concentration". David H. Autor, an economics professor at the M.I.T, says the United States economy is being “hollowed out."
Money funnels into a smaller pipe of individuals, at the expense of a great many people's living standards. And this trend does not even consider the separate but very related and important topics of energy use, energy production, and energy sources, which also have a large impact on our living standards.
So, how much devastation has to be inflicted upon the middle class before we realize that we need to think differently about our world? Taxes and how they are applied, need to be given a great deal of thought. What kinds of jobs should we train for? Does the education system need to adapt to meet these changing needs?
Perhaps we should feed these questions into the new, advanced software that is beating the best humans at Jeopardy and eliminating the need for lawyers. The answer may not be good. The scenario reminds me of a line from an old Emerson, Lake and Palmer classic prog-rock song, "Karn Evil 9, Third Impression", from the Brain Salad Surgery album. A warrior discusses the results of a battle with the computer in some future world: The final line, from the computer is "I'm perfect; are you?"
Lou,
ReplyDeleteA short story from my personal past that might also help to explain the gap between the techno reality and belief, as regards progress and employment in what was once the leading economy on the planet.
I was posted to Europe for a contract, to work upon the protocols for the establishment of the Euro currency . The year was 1987. I am originally from Europe (Ireland) and so I had a fairly clear understanding of the overall economic and educational conditions that prevailed, as I grew up, and until 1966 when I emigrated to Canada.
It became very clear to me in those early years, that North America, and certainly the US, was miles ahead in technology and most fields of endeavor than anything I had experienced in Europe.
Upon my return (1987) I had occasion to pay a visit to my old high school, as one does for sentimental reasons etc. I was amazed to see that in the junior classes the desks were configured to include the positioning of computers. On further inquiry I was informed that the desks were made in North America to specs provided by a division of Microsoft that focused upon the education segment. "Exclusively for the European market!"......... In 1987!!
This was my first real indication that Europe had begun to catch up and indeed was apparently leading, in the development of high tech education in the schools! Since I had never witnessed anything this advanced in North America as of that time? By the time I left Europe in 1992 every classroom in the European union had graduated to the inclusion of computer access for every student.
One would need to search out the comparative conditions in the US during the same time period, to be fair, but I would be willing to bet that pencils and paper and the three R's were still the mainstay of American education at that same junior level? With the exception of those bastions of higher learning etc.... "private and exclusive colleges"
My main point is that advancement of any society is in the advancement of practical knowledge, and it's ability to provide this knowledge to it's children as early as possible, in their developmental stages. I believe that America and indeed Canada to some lesser degree, accepted the self gratifying folly, that we were superior to all else in this regard. Simply because of one standard, "the states financial well being"! Hardly a current condition, and we can now see the carnage of this idiocy
As a result also, our children have not truly been provided with the "best education that money can buy"? Consequently growing numbers have become ill prepared now as young adults, to meet the challenges of a rapidly changing Global economic environment.
How quickly we can change this trend becomes an urgent challenge for obvious reasons, not the least of which is that generational civil commotion being witnessed around the world at present, (Egypt etc) Unfortunately in the meantime some large portion of the society will be "left behind" and become simply a human resource that is no longer in demand. There are many errors of judgement by leadership, that can be called upon as culpable for this horror! But I believe the over riding main cause to be, the excess focus upon wealth creation (greed) and the emphasis upon conspicuous consumerism, as opposed to quality of life, over the last 30 years!
Those that benefited from higher education did so only because they were "preened"at those "special" schools solely to serve this apparently successful ideology and it's progress. Not so for the vast majority of our children during that period.
The main real and growing practical needs of the community were disregarded, in this "helter skelter" charge towards a Faux model of the "American Dream". That dream which has now collapsed at the street level in nearly every community across America while the greed engines continue unabated.....cont
cont......
ReplyDeleteIt is truly saddening for me, at this stage of my life, to see that the same tired old ideology that caused this folly, can still find acceptance with so many, for it's dogma of greed over the true needs of the community at large. The American middle class is under attack even more so today than ever before, and yet none seem to be able to call these cretins to account for the damage they have already done to the lifeblood of America!
Instead they again seem to be able to gain the upper hand, regardless of the wishes of the vast majority of the people? Money continues to talk !
I hope you and John and any others that choose to read it, find the following of interest, I believe it is educational in the extreme and will perhaps allow for the narrower view of American economics to be broadened somewhat for yourselves.
ReplyDeleteAs well as perhaps add some additional credence to the adoption of the "logical" side of moderate economics, with a subsequent tempering of the rampant right wing view, that appears to be growing stronger without any logical reasoning whatsoever?
http://www.jamesconvey.com/uploads/3/3/8/3/3383644/japansocietysymposium.pdf
My apologies Lou/John.... You may need to visit my site www. jamesconvey.com, and choose "recommended reading" from tht drop down menu, to access the item "Japanese society symposium"
ReplyDeleteJames, I am reading the document from William Macdonald that you posted. It's very interesting. It will take me at least another read through to get a reasonable grasp of its contents. I like what I've been able to glean so far.
ReplyDeleteIn reply to your initial comment about the technology in schools: That is a different, but equally important aspect of what I am referring to. (I may have a future comment or thread on that topic).
The point I am making here about technology is this: It has made the production of almost everything so efficient, it has significantly reduced the need for human resources to create a unit of output (of whatever is being produced, be it widgets, or some form of service).
This has (at least) two important consequences.
1. It funnels more profit to a smaller set of people. It requires less people to work, thus less people are paid; and thus, more profit (enabled from lower people expenses among other efficiencies gained) gets funneled to a smaller group of people. This is what Reich refers to as "income concentration".
2. Less employment. There is simply less work for people to do, at least in the traditional sense.
So as the first dynamic of this efficiency is making the rich - more wealthy, the second dynamic simultaneously makes the middle and lower classes less wealthy, and reduces the difference between middle and lower classes. A zero-sum game that creates just two classes, the bourgeoisie and the proletariat.
I'll admit it is a somewhat over-simplified thesis. As in most economic issues, this issue consists of a complex web of interconnected events that are difficult to fully understand without a lot of analysis, and unfortunately sometimes only become obvious in hindsight.
But what can be done to get a clue as to what is happening in the current moment is, to follow the money. Who is accumulating more of it, and who is getting less? Who is controlling the flow of information about what is happening, and who benefits from the control of information? (A separate topic for future discussion is the idea that Fox News and the related agenda based "news" sources have created a reverse Orwellian state, where corporations have become Big Brother).
When viewed from that perspective, I believe it is apparent what is happening.
Lou,
ReplyDeleteYou are definitely following the right track. I do not think this is necessarily any deliberate conspiracy, but rather the natural consequence of human technological progress, together with the inefficiency of the current capitalist and democratic systems, and their inability to respond to the challenges, in time to offset the massive swings we are witnessing, as the pendulum of change moves to these new global extremes.
My own theory is that progress, whether we like to admit it or not, will ultimately outrun the inefficiencies of our current structural methodologies, and we will need to redesign our entire economic and social model for a Global well being.
I do believe the key factor for the future must be the redefinition of "value" and how it applies to the rights of the individual. In other words what is "value"? The "Human quotient" is the key central issue in this thing called "progress" I believe.
Our system of life is based today on the very narrow assumption that continued "growth" is the answer to value or quality of life. This is obviously flawed as a long term plan, and we are seeing the beginnings of it's failures as any sustainable methodology. Unless of course we wish to ultimately and continually hand the power and wealth of the planet to an ever decreasing % of it's populace? This is the natural consequence of unfettered free enterprise and unregulated growth and accumulation.
There must be a better way? There is a better way! I know given the mandate, that our scientists can define a better and more sustainable world and society? The problem they face is the battle with those that don't want change for selfish reasons, politicians without will, and a populace that is so easily convinced by the spin and lies that the scientific community are somehow always wrong?
Additionally anyone opining an opposite view to the prevailing winds of this well spun public opinion, is immediately painted with the brush of scorn. They are labelled lefties, communist, socialist enemies of the state etc etc etc. I wrote a small piece outlining the future need for a new economic format to include the "Human quotient" as the key element for our young economists and analysts to guide them in their linear modeling of economics, particularly as regards GDP calculations. The reaction was I guess predictable! Scorn was heaped upon me as some kind of radical leftie!
That is the crux of our problem today. This inability to trust those that are worthy of our trust and to believe instead the punditry of spin. There is no doubt that technology, as it is controlled today, is the bedfellow of that sector of human society, that believes only a few people deserve to benefit from the bounty. That is why only those technologies that enhance the progress of the few are the technologies that always and initially receive the focus. Any mass benefit is purely by accidental occasion.
What is for sure is that when the political will, harnesses the desires of the people and focuses upon a goal, it can and always will be achieved. One only has to refer for proof of this edict, to the recent history of Americas 10 year successful journey to the moon! Today we are surrounded unfortunately, by naysayers with power, that stifle the changes that would benefit the majority, because it would reduce their portion of the pie of plenty! Again, socialist style thinkers who are only interested in protecting themselves and their bonuses and privileges, rather than improving the lot of their own people and society!
I add to this that period in American history when the war with Japan began.
ReplyDeleteThe complete restructuring of the American industrial dynamic. Did you now that for almost 4 years almost no private automobiles were manufactured in the U.S! Tanks and planes yes ......... cars no!
That was political will and public beneficial policies at its apex! Every individual was aware of the reality of supply and demand in that equation. Even then there were still a tiny group of self serving libertarians, that fought Roosevelt every step of the way!
America can of course fix its problems, but the first job is to get people to agree, and politicians with will to tell them the truth, that the problems are big enough to require a similar commitment from the nation as a whole! Then to vote those "honest" politicians into office.